The recent unprecedented run-up in fuel prices has had a far-reaching effect on how and what Americans drive, along with repercussions throughout the economy and the automotive industry. Thankfully, it appears that the seemingly relentless fuel-price hikes have stopped, at least for the moment. As pump prices begin to drift down slightly, perhaps we can catch our collective breath and ponder the future. What will our automotive future be like? Will we sell our pickup trucks and end up driving tiny little cars and scooters, or even bicycles?

Drivers in many parts of the world still pay more for fuel than we do. For decades, fuel was selling on the Continent for prices comparable to what we are paying now. By comparison, our fuel prices are still low compared with Europe and even Canada. Gasoline is about $12 in Norway, $10 per gallon in Holland, nearly $9 per gallon in England and Germany. So it’s reasonable to use the experience in these places as a partial model of what trends we may see in the U.S.

My take on it all is that life will go on, and people will still drive, even if diesel hits $5 or $6 per gallon or more here, although the higher energy costs will be passed on for just about everything we buy. The United States is more spread out than Europe with lower population densities, and there are more rural farms and ranches here. As a result, large, full-sized pickup trucks, which are almost an American institution, will continue to be built and sold in the U.S.A. However, they’ll likely be sold in lesser numbers, and a higher percentage of trucks will be sold for primarily commercial use rather than private vehicles, just as in other countries.

Americans are not tiny and we expect sufficient room in our vehicles for us, our family members and all of our “stuff.” We will reluctantly begin to buy a higher percentage of cars than trucks, and there will be more small cars sold.

Folks will continue to drive, but will cut back on unnecessary driving and combine errands, and take their vacations closer to home. Many Dodge Ram diesel owners we’ve talked with already have cut back on driving their truck for daily commuting and use a small economy car instead, reserving the Ram for work, or hauling the boat, camper or toy hauler on weekends. Most large truck-based SUVS will be phased out and it’s likely that more compact and front-wheel-drive pickup trucks with smaller, more fuel-efficient drivetrains will be sold for personal use.

The percentage of diesel vehicles will increase due to their efficiency and high torque, but the high price of diesel fuel here has dampened the growing enthusiasm for them that had been building for the past several years. In the near term, engines and transmissions will continue to become more efficient. You’ll see more small engines and six- or seven-speed (or more) transmissions along with generator/starter units that shut down the engine when the vehicle is stopped, and more engines will incorporate cylinder deactivation for better mileage.

Manufacturing capacity limits and battery shortages and pricing will limit growth of hybrid vehicles for a while, and the same goes for plug-in hybrids and pure-electric vehicles. If and when they become mainstream, I think that electrical grid capacity will be a problem, especially during peak hours when commuters want to plug in at work.

All of this technology comes at a cost, and the price of new vehicles will undoubtedly rise. Americans will continue to buy new vehicles, even if we buy fewer of them because they cost more and we drive less. The final question is: Will the domestic car industry survive intact? Do Americans care whether our automakers and brands survive? I think that our auto industry will either require government help and bailouts (again), or they may be gobbled up by foreign companies, just as Anheuser-Busch was recently—unthinkable just a few years ago. What is your opinion, and what do you think will happen?